Is Matcha Going to Replace Coffee?

One forecast, from SNS Insider, puts the U.S. matcha market at $540 million in 2025 and projects growth to $1.35 billion by 2033, at a 12.16% annual growth rate. Other research firms estimate slightly different figures, but the direction is consistent across sources: the market is expanding, and the pace is faster than most categories.

Coffee sits at a different scale. In 2026, 66% of U.S. adults reported drinking coffee the previous day. Americans consume an estimated 500 million cups per day. NIQ data shows U.S. matcha retail sales rose 77% over the past three years. Fast growth, but from a much smaller base.

The two drinks are not competing for the same moments

Growth in matcha appears concentrated in three areas: afternoon energy, wellness-focused café purchases, and premium non-coffee drinks. These are spaces coffee was never going to own fully. A 3pm matcha order does not necessarily replace a 7am coffee. It tends to fill a different part of the day.

Caffeine levels help explain part of this pattern

Eight ounces of brewed coffee carries around 95 to 100 mg of caffeine, based on USDA figures. Matcha varies by preparation, but a typical serving made with one teaspoon of powder lands between 38 and 88 mg, based on a 2020 scientific review. For some consumers, Northwestern Medicine's Marilyn Cornelis noted, that range offers enough energy without triggering anxiety or disrupting sleep.

The claim that matcha caffeine absorbs more slowly than coffee caffeine is harder to support. Researchers including neuroscientist Allison Brager, who studies caffeine for the U.S. Army, have said they are not aware of strong evidence for this. The difference in how the drinks feel is more likely explained by lower caffeine intake, individual response, and compounds like L-theanine, an amino acid in matcha linked in small studies to reduced stress and improved focus. Results from those studies have been mixed. Sample sizes were small.

Hojicha is adding another dimension to this shift

Hojicha is a roasted Japanese tea with a lower caffeine profile than matcha. Cafés are beginning to incorporate it into latte programs, desserts, and evening menus, positioning it as a later-in-the-day option. Japanese tea as a café category is wider than a single product.

On the question of matcha surpassing coffee

The scale gap is large. The global coffee market is estimated at more than $200 billion. SNS Insider projects the global matcha market at $8.79 billion by 2033, roughly double its current size. Other forecasts put the 2030s figure somewhere between $6 billion and $9 billion. The direction is consistent. The ceiling is still far below coffee.

What matcha appears to be building is a durable, premium position within the café market rather than a direct replacement for coffee. For cafés and beverage brands, the more useful question is not which drink wins. It is which products serve the afternoon customer, the wellness-oriented buyer, and the consumer who stopped ordering coffee after noon but had no clear alternative.

Matcha is not filling coffee's hours. It is filling the hours coffee never owned.

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